Posts Tagged ‘complexity’

A matrix of the truth

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

And now for something interestingly different: mathematics & truth. Always an interesting combination (even more so since Gödel). I remember as a child (first lessons on high school) I was fascinated by the logic rules we learned, especially the rule a leads to b, where the assumption a did not nead to be true and still could lead to b, being yet a true consequence. I could not buy that at all.

Now, I know it to be very true, and see the workings of it in marketing and research often: an idea or insight or finding that is not true, can lead to wonderful valid consequences. Or, otherwise put, bad ideas can (and often do) lead to good marketing.

Let me explain that at the hand of quantitative research, where reality is boiled down to a two axis system (the preferred language in marketing). I have seen this presented in boardrooms, where the board made decisions on the position of their brand in relation to other brands on the quadrant. Typically this is irrational behaviour if you understand the math of it. The brands are all taken from a multidimensional space, maybe more than a 100 dimensions. Calculations are made to adjust this to a two dimension space. If you understand how much information is lost if you translate the 3-dimensional space (the earth) to a map, you can understand what is lost in this excersice. There is an exact measure to express the amount of information loss: the ‘Eigenwaarde’  (I only know the dutch word for it, sorry). Each axis has its own ‘eigenwaarde’. For this kind of research 0,18 is a rather high value and beyond 0,25 is very difficult to go. This means that 25% of the original information is maintained on that axis. That means that 75% is lost.

This is how decisions are made in the boardroom. But …. as I explained, it can be very usefull to do. There are various reasons for that. I won’t dive in it right now, but I would like to highlight one rule: the rule of focus. No matter the value of the information, if it leads to a focus, and if this focus leads to action, often something goods comes out of it. The action leads to positive energy in the organisation, everybody is happy and this is an important aspect of good marketing.

I really do not mean this in a cynical way. I most certainly don’t want to argue that we don’t need good research anymore (we do), or that we shouldn’t fight bad research (we should). I only want to explain that there is some robustness in the research and marketing process. It is like disentangling a very difficult clotted piece of wool: you just start plucking somewhere as long as you do that with some attention you will get there.

Let it snow!

Sunday, November 23rd, 2008

Back from a visit to my father in law who lived to be 89. On our way home: snow. It is interesting to notice the impact of a fairly common meteo phenomenon to traffic, even on a sunday. Even if predicted, it looks as of everyone is caught by surprise. Listening to the radio almost becomes funny. Over and over the warning is broadcasted. Over and over the conclusion on the radio can be heard: this would have been a serious traffic jam if the snow had occurred on a working day. Interesting to hear the comment over and over: the weather will be bad until monday morning rush hour.

This leads me to the interesting phenomenon of the predictable disaster. We know traffic is going to be awful tomorrow morning. We can all prevent this problem with a simple action (take the train, work at home) but we won’t. There are a lot of explanations to be made for this: ‘prisoners dilemma’ (if others stay home, I can drive without a problem), the fact we get used to traffic jams and take them into account, a serious jam is like an accepted excuse for arriving too late, thus the ‘punishment’ is not very severe, we need to get at work if we like it or not.

I would like to emphasis in this occasion another explanation that could be relevant. Human mind is very subject to the ’stability fallacy’. We feel that the world is a stable place and we tend to believe the current state to be the platform we will stay on. Because our memory is highly contextual, the memories of different states are not as accessible as they could be. We know in a rational way that thinks can be different, but it is hard to really feel it. Therefor we are prown to a kind of misleading feeling that things will not be as bad as expected.