Posts Tagged ‘ambiguity’

How painful to understand

Monday, December 29th, 2008

For all of those who still believe that human mind is a ‘newtonion’ one state machine and who see research as a tool to find out which state a certain consumer is in (preferably count the consumers, find out were they live and send them a message ‘buy my stuff’, a few examples to attack their view on the world.

The way we percieve pain is extremely dependent on context. If you look at your painful hand with a looking glass the pain grows, if you look at it with the opposite (making your hand look smaller) the pain diminish. (example form Dave Snowden’s blog, more to be found there)

Taste of any food is highly dependent on context. Beer drinkers are not able in a double blind test to find their own beer within others. But if they drink it branded, the taste difference is big. Old school would say: the consumer is stupid. However, neuroscience has prooved other wise: you really taste something different. The taste really changes when it is branded.

Taste is not a fixed state thing, neither is pain, neither is any of the most important motivators for buying anything. As a marketing director you should be more than aware that the concepts you are dealing with are highly dualistic, highly ambigeous and you can never trust on simple ideas.

Schröders cat: true, false ánd somewhere in between

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

In an early December blog I introduced the concept of the human mind being in several states at the same time. Often we implicitly assume that our mind should be in one state only, for instance either positive or negative about something. In reality it is quite clear that human mind is capable of containing many different and even opposing views at the same time. However our conscious mind really likes to pick out one of those and declare that one the ‘actual’  one, because it hates ambiguity. The idea of holding opposite ideas or being in several states at the same time has its famous counterpart in physics: Schröders cat.

Schröder as opposed to Boole, was very interested in duality: concepts needn’t be either or, could very easily be and and. This is very well expressed in his famous cat dilemma. Unfortunately I was’t able to find reference to Schröders cat dilemma on the internet. But I can describe it briefly: you are looking at a device with a cat in it. If you open the device, you could kill the cat by opening it. But it is also possible that the opening of the de device did not kill the cat, that it was already dead. You don’t know after opening: therefore the cat is in two states at the same time: dead and living. You think this is bullshit? Won’t blame you, if you think so, but actual this dilemma is a ‘macro’ description of a very normal phenomenon in quantum mechanics.

This is a parallel for research. The research itself interferes with reality. It is not possible to separate research and action. The outcome of the research is not revealing an ‘objective’ truth that is out there to be discovered (such as looking for a pebble in the ground). The outcome is not just there, it is formed by research. This concept is common knowledge in physics, but it is often ignored in social research. Look at the ‘Obama’ story. Asking questions about ‘whom will you vote for’ presuppose that you as a respondent sort of know that: you just have to look within your own mind to find the ‘Obama’ or the ‘MacCain’ pebble. As if it is a simple notion. In fact the respondents do not really know what they will be voting for when the ‘real decision’  has to be made. You could argue that all of the voters are in several states, and that the chances of the one state over the other can be bigger in one person than in the other. On top of that, the research results are absolutely influencing the endstate: if I can trust that Obama wins, the chances might increase for his opponent or the other way round. Research is part of the reality, can’t be separated from it. This is where quantum mechanics meet politics.

In quantum mechanics the concept of ’several states’ is quite normal, the system is forced to chose one state as a consequence of the research (the system being watched). No ‘true or false’  in quantum mechanics: true, false ánd something in between. Marketing directors have a big problem with this concept in their consumers. It is more comfortable and easy to understand opinions as ‘fixed state’ and ’simple’ items. So often the research can be viewed as opening the cats door, killing the cat as a consequence.

Either / Or versus And / And

Friday, November 28th, 2008

One little post about ambiguity. This notion keeps me busy this week. I would like to explain my feelings about this underestimated characteristic of our world at the hand of a speech Frits Spangenberg made at the ESOMAR Qualitative congress in Istanbul.

He said that research could play a role in separating emotions from facts in the whole credit crunch debate. Separating those  could prevent the crisis to go out of hand.

Now I like Frits a lot and I have a huge respect for him both as a researcher and the ESOMAR president. But I think that this is actually a complete mistake. The notion of something to be either emotion or a fact. The root of the mistake is that it would and could be possible to separate emotions from facts and therefor ‘rational concepts’. This is however not true. The interesting fact of this crisis (and all economic crises) is that it makes very apparent  the two cannot be separated. If there is a difference between the emotional and rational way the human mind looks at the world mind (which I doubt) the two are heavily interdependent. Emotions create facts and the facts create new emotions. It is not either / or, it is and / and. The mutual influence between the two creates a complex system were mind creates reality and reality changes mind.

If there is a role for research it is not to separate the two, but to find out the patterns in the way they intermingle.

Indian Masala

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

As I wrote yesterday I read a wonderful Indian novel, The white tiger, an example of ambiguity in motives. I wrote the novel shortly after hearing a wonderful presentation from Aya Gnadig and Harry Key from H,T,P, Concept at the qualitative ESOMAR congress in Istanbul, called Culture Karma Chameleon.

The gist of their presentation was that the complexity of the Indian society  is not easy to dive in to. They sort of summarized the indian culture in 5 words, but none of these actually meant what you would have thought if you read them without context. The word ‘quality’ for instance was applied to gear that needed repair every day, but that proved to be very usefull. The ease to adapte was another aspect of quality.

The most interesting word was ‘Masala’ that apparantly is a sort of symbol for the complexity of Indian society. Literary the word means ’spicemix’. But it is a metaphor for the ‘no fixed state’ that everything is in according to Indian society and for the fact that in india opposites are often held for truth.

This is a difficult concept for western society and especially for the Management culture that is up to now mainly binory driven (a bit can be either true or false). Maybe the Indian society is better equipped for the growing complexity than our own.

The white tiger

Monday, November 24th, 2008

My best friend Ronald once tipped me that any book from the shortlist of the man Booker prize is a masterpiece and can be bought blind. I would like to call it Ronalds law, and until now it worked well for me. Flying to Istanbul I therefor bought ‘the white tiger’ from Arvind Adiga, allthough I never heard from him, because the cover said ‘Winner of the Man Booker Prize 2008.

Again, a masterpiece. One big letter from ‘an entrepeneur’ to the chinese premier Wen JiaBao. I would like to mention it for one reason: it illustrates brilliantly the concept of ambiguity. The main character is a poor man. He hasn’t even got a name. You sympasize with him. However Adiga cleverly plays with the archetype of the ‘poor and honest’. This book is definitively not a new Uncle Tom. As a reader you are drawn into his life, but that is not exactly made easy. You sort of experience the ambiguity of motives and intent.

The book gives you some insight in the Indian world, but in a part of it that is not only strange to us, but strange to the writer as well as shown in the video from the Booker site.

Maybe this book should be added to a list of marketers reading list, since I notice that often in marketing the concept of ambiguity is not very developted: the one and clear motive is more easy to understand and to act upon, whereas in reality often our motives are a mix of different, often even conflicting motives.

100% bling bling

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

The Rijksmuseum may have been completely wrong in managing the reconstruction process that will probably take two decades – a time frame that China use to rebuild complete cities – in my opinion they did a great thing in exhibiting Damien Hirst ‘for the love of god‘.

I have seen it, and must say I was impressed. It is exuburant, extravagant and outrageous. I think the beauty of it lies in the multiplicy of meanings it evokes at the same time: memento mori, vanitas, bling bling, craftmenship, money.  It is at the same time conceptual art (which I hate) and not conceptual at all. It is often said that art is able to express  the spirit of a time and it can be seen as ‘weak signal’ for future developments. How coïncidal is it that this piece of art has been issued just before the crisis we encounter? I think the piece fits perfectly well in the environment of the Rijksmuseum with its 17th centrury  art.

Very worthwile is the part of the website that allows visitors to express their opinion.

Numbers

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Just following the US elections. No matter the results, this will be considered as a histrorical night. Interesting to see the role of numbers. I am switching between CNN and Dutch television. The way CNN is presenting numbers is really interesting: analysts manipulate touch screens and browse in interactive number charts. Even more interesting is their comments. It is becoming very clear that interpreting numbers is not an exact science at all, but an art. It takes experience and gut feeling to get the numbers right. This has always been true. However, the ‘old’ technology forced the media to present quantitative data in a ‘fixed’ way, suggesting a rock solid character. The new technology with all of the browsing possibilities, make very clear how explorative quantitative analysis can be and how many factors can influence the end result.