Last week I introduced the concept of the predictable disaster. A traffic jam forecast generated a lot of arousal. In the Netherlands the ANWB is taking care of the traffic news, updating about traffic jams. The ANWB forecast the ‘predictable disaster’ of a big traffic problems on Monday 24th. However last monday the traffic was not so heavy after all. Lots of laughter, criticism. Tuesday however, the roads were a mess: over 350 miles of slow traffic, or no movement at all. Big discussion. The ANWB claimed that the disaster was prevented: people were disencouraged to travel. Others claim that the ANWB forecast had had no effect at all and that ‘traffic forecast’ should not be given any more.
This is a wonderful example of a subtype of predictable disasters. The ‘disaster’ is inevitable because we now that heavy traffic is bound to happen and that the mean length of traffic jam is rapidly increasing and therefore the ‘high values’ (big jams verses no traffic at all) increase even more. The factors are known: day of the week, weather, time of the day, situation of the roads. On top of that: random factors such as traffic accidents. But the interdependence of them is not yet fully understood: the lack of any traffic problems during big road works two summers ago at the A10 around Amsterdam is still not fully understood.
How does this relate to other ‘predictable disasters?’ Financial crisis? Food situations in the third world? Greenhouse effect? Over population? Shortage of oil supply? And what about the numerous disasters that were likely to happen but never actually did (yet), such as ‘nuclear world war’?
Maybe all of these share the ’statistical side’: there is a chance they might happen, but we do not know or understand the maths of the chances. There is an interdependence of the different factors at stake that sum up to new, unknown factors. If you look at the documentaries on National Geography about aeroplane crashes, you always see this very unlikely combination of seemingly independent causes that you would never suspect to cluster together. On hindsight, after years of research, the combination of factors is quite logic.
So I take back my concept of ‘predictable disaster’. The only predictablility is that disasters will come but we don’t know what and when. Maybe that’s why they are called disaster for.